Part 2: The Return of Adrian the Canadian

Yesterday, Adrian reasserted himself on the blog with a clear proposal to reduce diving in soccer.  Today, he shows off his versatility with a response to my recent thoughts on fairness in U.S. and European professional sports leagues (written in relation to my brother Conor’s defense of talent concentration in European soccer). For a taste of the historical, economic, legal, and political, set aside 10 minutes and read on:

How long has it been? Too long, I think.  But Tyler’s recent post has compelled me to withdraw from my self-imposed hibernation and away from the stultifying process of studying for the Ontario bar exam. In short, I disagree with the capitalist/socialist, American Sports/European Sports dichotomy or, rather, I think it abstracts away from the real issue – that cartels make a heck of a lot more money than entities that exist in competition with one another. In short, the NFL and MLB are not staunch defenders of equality values; Dan Snyder and Hank Steinbrenner are not driving the train to the Finland Station.

The standard argument goes something like this: isn’t it ironic that America, land of unbridled capitalism, home of animal spirits on free and open fields, has “socialist” sports leagues that redistribute resources from winners to losers while red, socialist, pinko Europe has a free and open market for sports talent? It’s a cute argument and one that elicits a nice “hmmm…” from readers and there are certainly large elements of truth to it. American sports are, at least nominally, more redistributive, and there is a larger perception that American sports are organized more “fairly” than European sports from a competitive standpoint. Still, it’s far from clear that European sports are more aristocratic than American sports if we look at the highest levels and, more importantly, I think this distracts us from a deeper, more thorough comparison of why European sports and American sports are organized so differently.

Barcelona’s greatness is undeniable, but it’s not a greatness that has translated into a dynasty at the highest levels of competition. While Barca has been the dominant team in La Liga, it’s only won three of the last ten Champions League titles despite making each of the last ten tournaments. This means that the Champions League may not even be as “aristocratic” as the NBA:  eight different teams have won the Champions League while only six have won the NBA championship in the same span. And, unlike La Liga

Sloan Sports research rundown

Following on my general analysis of the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, here’s a look at the research presentations (you’ll note: nothing on the sports side of football or soccer! I submitted one of each but they were rejected . . . ):

An Expected Goals Model for Evaluating NHL Teams and Players (Brian MacDonald)

This paper tries to predict future performance better by incorporating more measurable statistics than past models (goals, shots, blocked shots, missed shots, hits, faceoff %, etc.). His prediction tests show that he makes improvements, and at the team level, I think these results have some value. However, moving to the individual level in a sport like hockey (or basketball, football, soccer, or rugby) is hard because of complementarities between players. For example, trying to measure one player’s contribution to team wins or goal differential based on the number of shots they take is hopelessly confused with the actions of other players on the ice that affect the quality and number of these shots.

Another issue in the paper is that MacDonald controls for team level statistics (such as faceoff win percentage) in the individual level regressions, when in fact much of player value may be driven by these statistics. For example, one of Red Wing Pavel Datsyuk’s strengths is faceoff win percentage, while one of his weaknesses is hitting. The value that individuals bring through these variables is caught up in MacDonald’s team level control variables. Still, the team-level analysis is a reasonable way to improve what’s out there.

Big 2’s and Big 3’s: Analyzing How a Team’s Best Players Complement Each Other (Robert Ayer)

This paper categorizes the top three players on each team

Sloan Sports Conference publicity

I spent most of Friday and Saturday at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, checking out other research and discussing my work (with my buddy Chris) on the NBA draft and tanking. Peter Dizikes wrote a nice article for MIT News discussing our project and some of the other work by MIT affiliates. I was also interviewed by a fellow named David Staples from the Edmonton Journal about our project.

David mentions another project on tanking presented at the conference. Adam Gold, who’s a PhD student at the University of Missouri, presented his “solution” for tanking. The proposal: total team wins after playoff elimination should determine draft order. My problem with this: teams that are eliminated sooner have more time to accumulate wins post-elimination, so, rather than race for the overall worst record, teams would race to be eliminated first. I think this would make the problem worse, since teams with low expectations  might give up early in the season, even if these expectations were wrong.

Adam’s response was that no teams will tank early, since they all try to make the playoffs first and foremost. I wish that were true,

Hockey Night in America! Part 2: Hitting in hockey

It’s Adrian the Canadian’s turn on part 2 of Hockey Night in America! Here’s what he proposes for the NHL, as they adjust to the new evidence about the dangers of head injuries:

Last night, Jeremy Roenick and Mike Milbury almost had a dust up over Eric Nystrom’s hit of Kris Letang (Deadspin has the link). The battle lines are the ones I’ve discussed here before – Roenick believes that Letang put himself in a bad position, Milbury, who I’ve criticized before for his Paleo positions, thinks that the hit was unnecessary. On ice, the referees thought that Nystrom deserved a “roughing minor” for the hit. For the uninitiated, a roughing penalty is given when one player hits another in the head with his hand or fist. Roughing is usually a minor penalty.

“Roughing” seems like an odd call here, Nystrom doesn’t seem to obviously punch Letang. After Letang punches the puck up along the boards, Nystrom continues attempts to hit Letang, misses him, and catches him on the chest/chin with some part of his arm – there does not seem to be a “punching motion.” Yet, it seems clear that Nystrom has done something wrong:

Hockey Night in America! Part 1: NHL shootouts and playoffs

With the NFL all wrapped up, it’s time for Hockey Night in America! A few weeks ago, I watched the extremely exciting Edmonton Oilers play my Detroit Red Wings. The Red Wings nearly got the win in regulation, but the Oilers scored with 39 seconds remaining (highlights here). Four on four overtime favored the fast skating Oilers, and Detroit needed two open net saves from defensemen to stay alive. The Wings are an excellent shootout team, but they lost this one.

The Wings are 7-2 in shootouts this year, which has earned them some extra points in the standings (shootouts fueled their record home winning streak as well). Back in December, I questioned whether these extra points are deserved. Shootouts reward individual skill that may not be related to game performance. In the interest of crowning the best team champion, maybe we’d be better off giving the Oilers and Red Wings one point each and going home at the end of overtime (the dreaded tie . . . ). But do teams that get into the playoffs with many shootout victories actually perform worse once they get there?

I started by calculating shootout-free points totals

Adrian the Canadian fixes hockey

Being Canadian, Adrian has a lot to say about hockey. I’ll let him take it away:

In August, the NHL held its (now annual) Research, Development, and Orientation (RDO) Camp. The RDO Camp is an interesting idea — it gives NHL teams a chance to evaluate top prospects and serves as a venue to experiment with potential rule changes. This year, they evaluated over two dozen rule variations, from the mundane (thinner nets) to the radical (line changes only permitted on the fly, 3-on-3 overtime). While I often complain about the NHL’s rules, especially in regard to player safety, the RDO camp is a great idea more leagues should implement. Moreover, it shows a surprising open-mindedness and willingness to change by the conservative NHL establishment. So, let’s take a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly at the last RDO. 

Adrian the Canadian on instant replay and cricket

Adrian the Canadian gave us his take on the use of instant replay in the NFL last Saturday. To his chagrin, the Super Bowl was tense and exciting but lacked replay controversy (we nearly had a Hochuli moment on the fumble recovered by the Patriots, due to an inadvertent whistle, but the Patriots’ 12 men on the field penalty made it irrelevant). Today, he reaches all the way to cricket to find an example of effective, uncontroversial video review:

With the Super Bowl over, the NBA and NHL slumping through their mid-seasons, March Madness a month away, and the unavailability of the rugby Six Nations on Rogers Cable in Toronto, we’re in the middle of the dullest part of the sports calendar outside of July/August, which makes this the perfect time to broaden our sports horizons and wade into the fascinating world of … cricket! The other day, an article in the Economist caught my eye. In short, a new system of instant replay is revolutionizing

Adrian the Canadian compares the NFL and NHL

Fresh off his wildly popular analysis of the Lee Evans non-catch on Sunday, Adrian the Canadian gives us an interesting comparison of the NFL’s and NHL’s approaches to violence:

It’s no secret that the NFL is the most popular sports league in North America. It’s also no secret that for those of you south of the 49^th parallel the NHL sits somewhere between UFC and NASCAR on the sports hierarchy. This strikes many people up north as somewhat of a mystery – professional hockey is a fast, physical, skilled and unpredictable game