The prediction for tonight: Kentucky over Kansas (54.6% of my simulations), but it should be close again (closer than the 6 to 6.5 point Vegas line). The simulations predict that the two teams are very close on most statistics, but Kentucky should rebound and shoot free throws slightly better and turn the ball over slightly less. We will see in 15 minutes!
The final four went almost exactly as my simulation predicted. Kentucky, who I predicted to win by 8.4, won by 8 points. Louisville did well on the offensive glass and limited their turnovers, but they fired up many bricks with their extra possessions (they were around 35% on twos and threes). Kentucky rebounded poorly but shot extremely well from the floor (57%, mostly on twos) and better from the line. Although I predicted an advantage for Kentucky shooting the ball, it wasn’t this big. They didn’t dominate the glass like I thought they would, so it’s a good thing they shot as well as they did.
In the nightcap, I had Ohio State and Kansas almost dead even. Kansas won by two points, and the game came down to the final shot. As I predicted, Kansas was better on the offensive glass. However, they turned the ball over quite a bit (I predicted the reverse), and the real difference in the game was Ohio State’s shooting. The simulations said they would shoot quite well. Instead, they shot about 35% on twos and threes, just like Louisville. Kansas, on the other hand, shot about as expected and got the win.
I’ll have a tournament summary up tomorrow. It’s looking like a good performance for most of the prediction methods that I examined.