The Colts are going to take Andrew Luck first overall in the draft. No one will blame them if he doesn’t work out because every team without a star quarterback would draft him, given the chance. However, is this the right choice? Here are the career numbers for all first pick QBs since 1990 (from Pro Football Reference):
I listed each quarterback’s draft year, games played, winning percentage, completion percentage, TDs and INTs as a percentage Continue reading
Posted in Common Sense, Football, Innovative Ideas, Trades/Free Agency, Uncategorized
Tagged Alex Smith, Alex Smith overrated, Alex Smith sucks, Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck trade value, Andy Dalton, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Bill Cowher, Bill Parcells, Bill Simmons, Brandon Weeden, Brandon Weeden 28, Brandon Weeden old, Brandon Weeden underrated, Brett Favre coming back, Brett Favre wants to play, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, Colts, Colts Manning Luck, Colts quarterback scenarios, Colts quarterback trades, Colts should stick with Manning, Colts should trade the first pick, David Carr, Drew Bledsoe, Eli Manning, Eli's first name, Eli's first name is Elisha, Elisha Manning, first pick NFL draft trade value, first picks nfl draft, football, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Is it smart to take a QB with the number one pick, JaMarcus Russell, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Jeff George, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Kirk Cousins underrated, Kyle Orton, Luck is overrated, Luck overvalued, Luck risky, Luke, Matt Cassel, Matt Flynn, Matt Flynn overrated, Matt Moore, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Matt Stafford, Matthew Stafford, Miami Dolphins, Michael Lewis, Michael Lewis Eli Manning, Michael Lewis Mannings, Michael Vick, NBA trade value column, NFL, NFL draft, NFL draft quarterbacks, NFL quarterback evaluation, number one overall picks, number one picks, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Quarterback, quarterback simulation, quarterback trade value NFL, quarterback virtual reality, quarterbacks NFL, quarterbacks picked first overall, Robert Griffin III, Sam Bradford, Should the Colts take Andrew Luck?, Super Bowl, teams should not draft quarterbacks high, Tim Couch, TJ Yates, Tony Romo, will Luck be better than Manning
Week 16 was huge. Fifteen teams entered the week with work to do to make the playoffs (7 more had already clinched). Ten of those 15 teams played another team within the same group. That meant 5 guaranteed wins for these teams; only the Titans got a win outside of the group.
Before I break down the carnage, let’s look at the real contenders. Here are the True Wins standings for the six teams that I think have a chance (you can learn about True Wins in my previous post, which are my quick and dirty luck-free measure of team quality): Continue reading
Posted in Commentary, Football, Gambling, Sports Stats, Uncategorized
Tagged 2006-07 Colts, 2007-08 Giants, AFC, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger ankle, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Charlie Batch, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Michael Vick, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFC, NFL, NFL playoff scenarios, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, playoffs, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Super Bowl line, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, True Wins, Washington Redskins, week 17
Pistons GM Joe Dumars just resigned point guard/shooting guard Rodney Stuckey for $25 million over 3 years. Stuckey has been up and down for the Pistons since they drafted him in 2007, but basically he’s an Iverson-style ball-hog point guard that the Pistons would rather have at shooting guard, since they don’t really trust him. I’m pretty neutral on this signing, probably keeps the Pistons just outside the playoffs, just like last year.
I am NOT neutral about the following Dumars moves: Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Common Sense, Financial Analysis, Trades/Free Agency, Uncategorized
Tagged Allen Iverson, Austin Daye, Ben Gordon, Ben Wallace, Bill Simmons, Charlie Villanueva, Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons, Flip Saunders, free agency, Greg Monroe, Joe Dumars, John Kuester, Jonas Jerebko, Michael Curry, NBA, NBA draft, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince
A couple days ago, I showed that True Wins is an able replacement for Pythagorean wins as a simple, “luck-free” measure of team quality in the NFL. True Wins gives full credit for blowout wins and half credit for close wins and losses (defining close games as games within 7 points). Heading into week 15 tonight, I thought it would be fun to see how teams stack up this season. First, let’s look at teams almost certain to make the playoffs (4 of the 7 have already clinched):
True Wins agrees that the Packers are the clear best team, and there’s not much difference among the six teams at 10-3. All these teams have gotten a little lucky in close games (i.e., their wins are higher than their True Wins), but only the Packers and Saints True Win differences are especially high. These teams are all legitimate playoff contenders.
Next, consider teams still in the hunt (I’ll be generous and include 6-7 teams plus the Eagles): Continue reading
Posted in Football, Gambling, Probability Analysis, Sports Stats, Uncategorized
Tagged '72 Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Dream Team, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, playoffs, Pythagorean, Pythagorean expectation, Pythagorean wins, San Diego Chargers, Super Bowl, Tebowed, Tim Tebow, True Wins, undefeated
Last week, I wrote about the use of the Pythagorean expectation for measuring NFL team quality. I didn’t have much nice to say. I think that the Pythagorean has a catchy name, but it’s more complicated than it needs to be. The Pythagorean uses points for and against to capture the intuition that close games are decided by luck, not skill. I proposed True Wins as a way to frame this more transparently:
True Wins = Blowout wins + Close wins/2 + Close losses/2 + Ties/2
True Wins gives half credit for all close games, whether won or lost, since teams should win half their close games in the long run if they are truly decided by luck. For this post, Continue reading
Posted in Commentary, Football, Gambling, Innovative Ideas, Sports Stats, Uncategorized
Tagged Aaron Schatz, Adrian the Canadian, football, Football Outsiders, NFL, Pythagorean, Pythagorean expectation, Pythagorean exponent, True Wins
I didn’t get to watch a lot of football yesterday, but I did watch the end of the Cowboys-Giants showdown, where the winner would take control of the division. Secretly, I don’t think either of these teams are very good, and selfishly, I was rooting for the Cowboys, which would help my Lions slightly in the wild card race.
The end of the game was really exciting, featuring big plays both directions (even though the Cowboys’ big plays were primarily due to horrible pass coverage by the Giants). Apart from the excitement, though, there were a few hidden plays Continue reading
Posted in Common Sense, Football, Probability Analysis, Uncategorized
Tagged Al Michaels, Bill Barnwell, Chicago Bears, Cris Collinsworth, Dallas Cowboys, Dan Bailey, Denver Broncos, Dez Bryant, Eli Manning, ESPN, game theory, hidden plays, icing the kicker, Jake Ballard, Jason Garrett, Marion Barber, Matt Prater, Miles Austin, New York Giants, NFL, prevent defense, Tim Tebow, time management, Tom Coughlin, Tony Romo, two point conversions
I’m an economics PhD student with a passion for sports. This blog is about football, baseball, basketball, hockey, soccer, and rugby. It’s also about meaningful stats and common sense. Share your opinions in the comments or drop me a line if you want to write a post!