I spent most of Friday and Saturday at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, checking out other research and discussing my work (with my buddy Chris) on the NBA draft and tanking. Peter Dizikes wrote a nice article for MIT News discussing our project and some of the other work by MIT affiliates. I was also interviewed by a fellow named David Staples from the Edmonton Journal about our project.
David mentions another project on tanking presented at the conference. Adam Gold, who’s a PhD student at the University of Missouri, presented his “solution” for tanking. The proposal: total team wins after playoff elimination should determine draft order. My problem with this: teams that are eliminated sooner have more time to accumulate wins post-elimination, so, rather than race for the overall worst record, teams would race to be eliminated first. I think this would make the problem worse, since teams with low expectations might give up early in the season, even if these expectations were wrong.
Adam’s response was that no teams will tank early, since they all try to make the playoffs first and foremost. I wish that were true, Continue reading