The Celtics are hanging onto the 8 seed for dear life. Last night, they got a big win over the Cavaliers (who are ninth) and managed to tie up the Knicks for the 7 seed. In Boston, most people realize that this group is done. I’m reminded of the Pistons in ’08-09; here’s the IMDB:
PG-13 (66 games and 1 playoff round) – Sports Action
In 2008-2009, the Detroit Pistons are coming off six straight Eastern Conference finals appearances. However, their core players — Chauncey Billups, Richard “Rip” Hamilton, and Rasheed Wallace — are aging, Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Pop Culture, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged 08 09 Pistons, Allen Iverson, Antonio McDyess, Arron Afflalo, Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics, Brandon Bass, Celtics big three too old, Celtics championship window closed, Celtics need to blow up the big three, Celtics should trade Allen, Celtics should trade Garnett, Celtics should trade Rondo, Celtics too old, Celtics trade possibilities, Chauncey Billups, Chris Wilcox, Cleveland Cavaliers, Danny Ainge, Detroit Pistons, Doc Rivers, E'Twaun Moore, Iverson trade Pistons, Jason Maxiell, Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Garnett, Kwame Brown, LeBron James, Michael Curry, Mickael Pietrus, Paul Pierce, Pistons 6 straight Eastern Conference finals, Rajon Rondo, Rajon Rondo on the trading block, Rajon Rondo trade, Rasheed Wallace, Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton, Rip Hamilton Ray Allen, Rodney Stuckey, Steve Kerr Rajon Rondo quote Sports Illustrated, Tayshaun Prince
My buddy Tony and I have been trying to figure out how to quantify Jeremy Lin’s recent five games. He suggested I figure out the likelihood of his start, assuming that Lin is “just” an above average point guard. So, I identified all the point guards who averaged between 16 and 18 points per game in the 2009-10 or 2010-11 season. In 2009-10, that included Devin Harris, Rodney Stuckey, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Steve Nash, and Tony Parker. In 10-11, the list is Brandon Jennings, Chauncey Billups, Gilbert Arenas (before the suspension), John Wall, Raymond Felton (while with the Knicks), and Tony Parker again.
I collected the game logs for all these guys for the relevant year(s); here’s the histogram of points scored in each game (including playoffs to bump the sample up):
In a total of 832 games, these players scored 30 or more points on 38 separate occasions (this is the total of the last three bars on the right). Likewise, they scored fewer than 5 points in 32 different games. These two tails each capture about 4-5% of the total distribution.
Using this distribution, Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Prediction, Probability Analysis
Tagged Brandon Jennings, Chauncey Billups, Devin Harris, exact sequence, five games, game logs, game point, Gilbert Arenas, Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lin analysis, Jeremy Lin assessment, Jeremy Lin hype, Jeremy Lin overhyped, Jeremy Lin overrated, Jeremy Lin point guard, Jeremy Lin points, Jeremy Lin prediction, Jeremy Lin statistics, John Wall, Knick, Lin, New York Knicks, Point guard, Raymond Felton, Rodney Stuckey, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Steve Nash, three bars, Tony Parker
Pistons GM Joe Dumars just resigned point guard/shooting guard Rodney Stuckey for $25 million over 3 years. Stuckey has been up and down for the Pistons since they drafted him in 2007, but basically he’s an Iverson-style ball-hog point guard that the Pistons would rather have at shooting guard, since they don’t really trust him. I’m pretty neutral on this signing, probably keeps the Pistons just outside the playoffs, just like last year.
I am NOT neutral about the following Dumars moves: Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Common Sense, Financial Analysis, Trades/Free Agency, Uncategorized
Tagged Allen Iverson, Austin Daye, Ben Gordon, Ben Wallace, Bill Simmons, Charlie Villanueva, Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons, Flip Saunders, free agency, Greg Monroe, Joe Dumars, John Kuester, Jonas Jerebko, Michael Curry, NBA, NBA draft, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince