Tag Archives: Denver Broncos

Were the Lions screwed by the officials? Adrian the Canadian speaks!

Fox has Rules Guru Mike Pereira, but he’s got nothing on my lawyer friend Adrian the Canadian. Here is my personal rules guru’s take on two key calls in the Lions – Saints game last night:

Don’t be surprised if Tyler takes a few days off blogging about football — last night’s Detroit/New Orleans Wild Card playoff game had to be tough on him. Not only did New Orleans pull away from his beloved Lions late, but they won in part due to two questionable pieces of officiating. The first call, Continue reading

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As the dust settles: week 17 recap and playoff preview

The playoffs are set! I’ll give my thoughts on each match up in a moment, but let’s look at what happened in week 17 first. Seven teams were fighting for their playoff lives, and 7 out of 9 that had clinched were still playing for a higher seed. Like last week, let’s start with the teams that have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl (at least 10 True Wins and a stable quarterback situation; if you haven’t read about True Wins yet, what are you waiting for?):

All these teams got the job done in week 17. I was confident that the Steelers would win a defensive struggle against the Browns Continue reading

NFL week 17: contenders and pretenders

Week 16 was huge. Fifteen teams entered the week with work to do to make the playoffs (7 more had already clinched). Ten of those 15 teams played another team within the same group. That meant 5 guaranteed wins for these teams; only the Titans got a win outside of the group.

Before I break down the carnage, let’s look at the real contenders. Here are the True Wins standings for the six teams that I think have a chance (you can learn about True Wins in my previous post, which are my quick and dirty luck-free measure of team quality): Continue reading

True Wins update heading into week 16

NFL playoff races heated up in week 15 (just like always). The Packers finally lost and the corks popped for the ’72 Dolphins (just like always), while all other NFC playoff teams held serve. The AFC was the mirror image. The Patriots are now cruising with the top seed (just like always) and a six game win streak, while all other AFC playoff teams lost but maintained their playoff positions. Yes, that’s correct, Tim Tebow lost.

Despite losses by the Broncos, Titans, Raiders, Bears, and Giants, no new teams were eliminated. The NFL must be thrilled! With two weeks to go, 22 out of 32 teams still have a shot for only 12 spots.

Before we see who actually deserves a shot, Continue reading

Just a little bit of luck

A couple days ago, I showed that True Wins is an able replacement for Pythagorean wins as a simple, “luck-free” measure of team quality in the NFL. True Wins gives full credit for blowout wins and half credit for close wins and losses (defining close games as games within 7 points). Heading into week 15 tonight, I thought it would be fun to see how teams stack up this season. First, let’s look at teams almost certain to make the playoffs (4 of the 7 have already clinched):

True Wins agrees that the Packers are the clear best team, and there’s not much difference among the six teams at 10-3. All these teams have gotten a little lucky in close games (i.e., their wins are higher than their True Wins), but only the Packers and Saints True Win differences are especially high. These teams are all legitimate playoff contenders.

Next, consider teams still in the hunt (I’ll be generous and include 6-7 teams plus the Eagles): Continue reading

Sunday night madness and just a little Tebow

I didn’t get to watch a lot of football yesterday, but I did watch the end of the Cowboys-Giants showdown, where the winner would take control of the division. Secretly, I don’t think either of these teams are very good, and selfishly, I was rooting for the Cowboys, which would help my Lions slightly in the wild card race.

The end of the game was really exciting, featuring big plays both directions (even though the Cowboys’ big plays were primarily due to horrible pass coverage by the Giants). Apart from the excitement, though, there were a few hidden plays Continue reading

Tebow flips

The odds of flipping a Tebow and getting 5 heads in a row is 0.5^5 = 3%. However, the odds of 5 heads in a row in any stretch of 20 Tebow flips is 25%. Tebow came up heads again today, but he gets a big assist from Marion Barber.