The NHL playoffs have many more upsets than the NBA. Adrian the Canadian tells me that this is ruining their product, since the most exciting teams often get unlucky and bow out early. I can’t help but agree — I stopped watching this year after my favorite team (the Red Wings), my local team (the Bruins), and probably the best team (the Penguins) got bounced. The NHL wasn’t always so unpredictable — the Canadiens, Islanders, and Oilers won 13 of 15 cups between 1975-76 and 1989-90. Adrian’s theory is that the the rise of the butterfly goalie has increased save percentages, which makes outcomes more random.
It’s pretty easy to show that increased save percentages do indeed muddy up the result. I generated 1,000 simulated games for three sets of parameters. First, the 1980s (before the butterfly):
- Both teams: 89% save percentage
- Team A: 32 shots per game on average
- Team B: 28 shots per game on average
Then, for the late 90s/early 2000s (butterfly goalies, slightly fewer shots on average perhaps due to popularity of the neutral zone trap): Continue reading
Posted in Common Sense, Hockey, Probability Analysis
Tagged Adrian the Canadian, average goals in the NHL, butterfly goalies, Canada, Coyotes, Detroit Red Wings, effect of butterfly goalies, game series, get rid of shootouts, goaltending has improved nhl, hockey is random, hockey playoff upsets, hockey unpredictable, National Hockey League, neutral zone trap, NHL, NHL playoffs, playoffs, quality team, randomness in hockey, Red Wings, save percentage, shoot outs, shootouts, shootouts are dumb, shootouts lucky, shootouts not fair, Sports, Stanley Cup playoffs, Team B, too many upsets hockey
Here’s a fun fact. NHL first round winners were 45-54 in shootouts in the regular season. First round losers were 63-43. Here are the match ups (higher regular season point total first, shootout record in parentheses, winner in bold):
- Rangers (4-5) vs. Ottawa (6-4)
- Bruins (9-3) vs. Capitals (4-4)
- Devils (12-4) vs. Panthers (6-11)
- Penguins (9-3) vs. Flyers (4-7)
- Canucks (8-7) vs. Kings (6-9)
- Blues (4-10) vs. Sharks (9-5)
- Blackhawks (7-7) vs. Coyotes (6-10)
- Predators (5-5) vs. Red Wings (9-3)
So, the team with the lower shootout win percentage won seven out of eight series. The team with the higher point total only won four out of eight (Rangers, Blues, and Predators), in part because good shootout records inflated some teams’ point totals. Why do we still have shootouts again?
Posted in Common Sense, Hockey
Tagged Blackhawks, bostonbruins, Bruins, Canucks, Capitals, Chicago Blackhawks, Coyotes, Detroit Red Wings, Devils, Flyers, Kings, Nashville Predators, National Hockey League, NHL, NHL should get rid of shootouts, no more shootouts, Ottawa, Panthers, Penguins, predators, Rangers, Red Wings, Senators, Sharks, shoot outs, shootout performance, shootout performance is irrelevant, shootout records, shootouts, shootouts are dumb, shootouts bad for hockey, shootouts playoff success, shootouts reward wrong team, Sports, St. Louis Blues, Vancouver Canucks
With the NFL all wrapped up, it’s time for Hockey Night in America! A few weeks ago, I watched the extremely exciting Edmonton Oilers play my Detroit Red Wings. The Red Wings nearly got the win in regulation, but the Oilers scored with 39 seconds remaining (highlights here). Four on four overtime favored the fast skating Oilers, and Detroit needed two open net saves from defensemen to stay alive. The Wings are an excellent shootout team, but they lost this one.
The Wings are 7-2 in shootouts this year, which has earned them some extra points in the standings (shootouts fueled their record home winning streak as well). Back in December, I questioned whether these extra points are deserved. Shootouts reward individual skill that may not be related to game performance. In the interest of crowning the best team champion, maybe we’d be better off giving the Oilers and Red Wings one point each and going home at the end of overtime (the dreaded tie . . . ). But do teams that get into the playoffs with many shootout victories actually perform worse once they get there?
I started by calculating shootout-free points totals Continue reading
Posted in Hockey, Prediction, Rules Analysis, Sports Stats
Tagged Detroit, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, get rid of shootouts, hockey, Hockey Night in America, Hockey Night in Canada, hockey no more shootouts, National Hockey League, NHL, NHL overtime alternatives, NHL overtime rules, overtime proposals, Red Wings, Red Wings home winning streak, shootout is dumb, shootouts, shootouts lucky, shootouts not fair, Vancouver Canucks
Last night, I stayed up to watch my Red Wings take on the Canucks on the West coast. These are two of the hottest teams in hockey, led by veterans who rely on passing, puck handling, and precision (the Sedins for the Canucks, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Lidstrom for the Red Wings). I figured I was in for a clean game with lots of exciting plays.
You can check out some highlights on TSN. This game had it all: Continue reading
Posted in Commentary, Common Sense, Hockey
Tagged Brendan Shanahan NHL discipline, Buffalo Sabres, Cody Hodgson, Darren Helm, Detroit Red Wings, Drew Milller, Fox Sports Detroit, Henrik Zetterberg, Jannik Hansen, Jimmy Howard, Nicklas Lidstrom, Niklas Kronwall hit, Pavel Datsyuk, Roberto Luongo, Ryan Kesler, Ryan Miller, Sedin twins, Sidney Crosby concussion, Todd Bertuzzi, TSN, Valtteri Filppula, Vancouver Canucks
The transactions keep flowing in the NBA. Nene signed a big contract with the Nuggets (more than $67 million, 5 years) that only looks small because many thought he might receive a $100 million offer. However, this still reminds me of the contracts that brought us NBA Lockout 2011 (which is also the name of a really boring video game about collective bargaining and corporate finance). We’re talking about a big man with past knee problems and a rebound rate around 15 over the last four years. Guys like Dwight Howard and Kevin Love are in the 20s.
I think Nene is a decent defender as well, but this contract is most likely a questionable decision in response to a bad situation. Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Financial Analysis, Hockey, Probability Analysis, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged Aaron Afflalo, basketball in China, cap room, Chris Paul, Corey Brewer, Dallas Mavericks, DeAndre Jordan, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Red Wings, Dwight Howard, eight seed wins series, Evgeni Malkin, J.R. Smith, John Hollinger, Kenyon Martin, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, max contracts, midlevel contracts, NBA, NBA lockout, NBA playoffs, Nene, New Jersey Nets, NHL, NHL playoffs, PER, Pittsburgh Penguins, rebound rate, Rudy Fernandez, salary cap, Sidney Crosby concussion, Tyson Chandler, Wilson Chandler