Jerry West had some interesting comments yesterday on superstars demanding trades in the NBA. Basically, he says wait them out. His two arguments:
- Players and agents will “resign” themselves to the situation and “re-sign” since their current team can offer them as much as $30 million more than another team (by NBA rules)
- Even if they don’t, the value you get in a trade is crappy
I disagree with point 1 (Exhibit A: LeBron James), but he’s right about point 2. In my South Beach Talents model, Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Common Sense, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged Bulls trade Howard, Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls, Dwight Howard, Dwight Howard trade, Jerry West, Jerry West Dwight Howard, Joakim Noah, LeBron James, Luol Deng, NBA, should the Bulls trade for Dwight Howard
It was a renaissance in Boston last night. Garnett was draining 20 footers, Paul Pierce was driving and kicking and hitting shots, and Jermaine O’Neal was putting the clamps on Dwight Howard. Everybody hustled. The defensive intensity never lapsed all game. To steal a line from NBA TV studio man Brent Barry, the Celtics’ “Jurassic Five” went prehistoric on the Magic and held them to a franchise-low 56 points. It was their first win over a team with a winning record, by 31 points no less.
Recently, I’ve discussed the efficacy of the hack-a-Howard strategy (or as Celtics TV mainstay Tommy Heinsohn puts it, the old “hack the Shaq”). The short answer is that Howard shoots too well from the line (59% almost every year, though lower so far this year) for a pure hack-a-Howard to be effective for most teams. However, hacking Howard only when he has the ball in good position Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Probability Analysis
Tagged 56 points franchise low, Avery Bradley, Avery Bradley defensive weapon, Avery Bradley great defender, Avery Bradley owned Jameer Nelson, basketball, Bass outplayed Davis, Big Baby Davis, Boston Celtics, Brandon Bass, Brent Barry Jurassic five, Celtic, Celtics defended Howard well, Celtics Magic trade Davis Bass, Celtics old, Celtics won the Brandon Bass Glen Davis trade, Doc Rivers, Dwight Howard, E'Twaun Moore, Glen Davis, gold buffalo proof coin commercial, Greg "The Dutch Steamer" Stiemsma, hack-a-Howard, Hedo "the Turk" Turkoglu, Howard, Howard double team, Howard free throw shooting percentage, Howard not Superman, Howard shooting percentage, Howard should pass more, Howard takes bad shots, Howard took too many shots, intentional fouls Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson turnovers, Jason Richardson, Jermaine O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal defense, Jurassic Five, Kevin Garnett resurgence, KG, Magic offense uncreative, Marquis Daniels, Max Tall commercial, Max Tall shoe lifts, NBA, NBA TV, NBA TV horrible commercials, O'Neal, O'Neal stopped Howard, Orlando Magic, Paul Pierce, Paul Pierce heel injury, Rajan Rondo, Ray Allen, Sasha "the Dog" Pavlovic, Sasha Pavlovic, should teams double team Dwight Howard, teams should not double team Dwight Howard, the Dutch Steamer, the Steamer, the Turk, Tommy Heinsohn funny quotes, Tony
A couple weeks ago, I argued that the hack-a-Howard strategy could work on a player who shoots 50% from the line. My post was timely; four days later, Mark Jackson instructed his Warriors to foul Howard repeatedly. Howard attempted 39 free throws (an NBA record) and made 21 (54%). The Warriors lost the game, and commentators hammered Jackson for ruining the flow of the game and being afraid to face up to the opposition. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy didn’t really complain but refused to foul 51% career free throw shooter Andris Biedrins in retaliation. However, the Warriors still had a chance to win with 3 minutes left against a far superior opponent. To me, that looks like a success.
What do the numbers say about Jackson’s decision? Well, Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Innovative Ideas, Probability Analysis
Tagged Andris Biedrins, Andris Biedrins free throw shooting percentage, basketball, Dwight Howard, Dwight Howard free throw shooting percentage, Dwight Howard free throws, Golden State Warriors, hack Howard, hack-a-Biedrins, hack-a-Howard, hack-a-Shaq, Howard attempts 39 free throws, intentional fouls, Mark Jackson, Mark Jackson is an idiot, Mark Jackson shouldn't have hacked Howard, NBA, Orlando Magic, Stan Van Gundy
In my post on Friday about the DiMaggio hit streak, I mentioned the old hack-a-Shaq strategy. With Dwight Howard playing for Shaq’s old team, I’m surprised that teams don’t try the hack-a-Howard (Howard is a 60% career free throw shooter). Friday night’s Bulls-Magic game was a potential opportunity; the Bulls led for the entire fourth quarter. Here are the Bulls possessions inside of 4:30 remaining: Continue reading
Posted in Baseball, Basketball, Innovative Ideas, Probability Analysis
Tagged 56 games, baseball, basketball, Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, hack-a-Howard, hack-a-Shaq, Hedo Turkoglu, hit streak, intentional foul off the ball, intentional fouling, J.J. Redick, Jameer Nelson, Joe DiMaggio, Kyle Korver, Luol Deng, Orlando Magic, poor free throw shooter, Shaquille O'Neal, Taj Gibson
And I don’t mean on SNL. Charles Barkley joined Reggie Miller and Kevin Harlan on TNT’s Hawks – Heat broadcast on Thursday. If you get a chance to watch Barkley court side, don’t miss it. His honesty and intelligence are refreshing.
In fact, he was a little too honest this time around. During a commercial break, some online viewers were treated to Barkley pontificating while he thought he was off camera. Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Pop Culture
Tagged Atlanta Hawks, basketball, Big Baby, Charles Barkley, Chicago Bulls, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Glen Davis, Jeff Van Gundy, Kevin Harlan, Miami Heat, nice guys, Orlando Magic, Reggie Miller, Saturday Night Live, SNL, TNT, Toronto Rapters, Weight Watchers
I just got back from the Celtics open practice – this year they played a full two quarters of basketball, “green” vs. “white.” Everyone played except for Garnett and Pierce, and guys got into it (running actual plays, playing defense, working for offensive rebounds, refs called it tight, etc.). The white team featured Rondo and Allen, as well as new face Brandon Bass and ex-star Jermaine O’Neal. The
Washington Generals green team was led by Marquis Daniels (the best defender in the league) and journeyman Chris Wilcox. It’s hard to learn too much from a setting like this, but I have a few observations from the evening: Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged Boston Celtics, Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox, Detroit Pistons, Dwight Howard, E'Twaun Moore, Greg Stiemsma, JaJuan Johnson, Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Garnett, Marquis Daniels, NBA, open practice, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen
The transactions keep flowing in the NBA. Nene signed a big contract with the Nuggets (more than $67 million, 5 years) that only looks small because many thought he might receive a $100 million offer. However, this still reminds me of the contracts that brought us NBA Lockout 2011 (which is also the name of a really boring video game about collective bargaining and corporate finance). We’re talking about a big man with past knee problems and a rebound rate around 15 over the last four years. Guys like Dwight Howard and Kevin Love are in the 20s.
I think Nene is a decent defender as well, but this contract is most likely a questionable decision in response to a bad situation. Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Financial Analysis, Hockey, Probability Analysis, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged Aaron Afflalo, basketball in China, cap room, Chris Paul, Corey Brewer, Dallas Mavericks, DeAndre Jordan, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Red Wings, Dwight Howard, eight seed wins series, Evgeni Malkin, J.R. Smith, John Hollinger, Kenyon Martin, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, max contracts, midlevel contracts, NBA, NBA lockout, NBA playoffs, Nene, New Jersey Nets, NHL, NHL playoffs, PER, Pittsburgh Penguins, rebound rate, Rudy Fernandez, salary cap, Sidney Crosby concussion, Tyson Chandler, Wilson Chandler