NFL playoffs are right around the corner, but ’tis the season for a jolt of baseball excitement too, as teams sign new players. The contracts are getting bigger and bigger, supported by growing MLB revenues. Some of the major signings under the tree this year (more here):
- Zack Greinke, 6 yrs, $147 million (Dodgers)
- Josh Hamilton, 5 yrs, $125 million (Angels)
- B.J. Upton, 5 yrs, $75 million (Rays)
- Anibal Sanchez, 5 yrs, $80 million (Tigers)
But before you start thinking playoffs, remember that many big deals don’t work out. Who will be nice and who will be naughty this year?
The Old Lumps of Coal
From the list above, Greinke is 29 years old, Hamilton is 31, Upton is 28, and Sanchez is 28. Not many young players are available through free agency, but are these 4 to 6 year deals for 28 to 31 year olds a good idea? I tackled this question with my friend Jeff Phillips for ESPN the Magazine in early October.
Specifically, we wondered if long deals for 30 year olds made more sense during the steroid era, when players could recover, train, and maintain more easily. There are two sides of the coin: (1) how has older player performance changed, and (2) has older player compensation evolved appropriately. We focused on players in the top quarter of the salary distribution, since that’s where the big money is spent. To measure performance, we examined average Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP)* by age during and after the steroid era:
Uh oh. Although performance for all highly paid players has gone down, older “stars” have turned out to be coal indeed. Looking year by year highlights the post-PED age decline. Average WARP for older and younger stars was remarkably similar through the steroid era, but older player WARP Continue reading
Posted in Baseball, Causal Analysis, Financial Analysis, Prediction, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged age and performance, Age and steroids, aging, aging baseball, Albert Pujols, Angel Pagan, Angels, Anibal Sanchez, average salary, B.J. Upton, baseball, contracts, David Ortiz, Detroit Tigers, ESPN The Magazine, Fielder contract too long, free agent projections, Jake Peavy, Jeff Phillips, Josh Hamilton, lumps of coal, Major League Baseball, Michael Bourn, Mike Napoli, Mitchell Report, MLB free agent market 2013, MLB free agents, MLB revenue, MLB revenue growth, Nick Swisher, older stars, Post-steroid era baseball, Prince Fielder, projected value, projections, Pujols contract, rising salaries MLB, salary distribution, Shane Victorino, Sports, Steroid era MLB, steroids and age, steroids and aging, Torii Hunter, WARP, worst contracts, worst contracts MLB, Zack Greinke
As the college football season gets under way, my buddy Jeff and I put together a brand new college football ranking for ESPN the Magazine (insider required, in print 9/17/2012). We started with ESPN’s pro franchise ultimate standings as a template, and tried to make things as quantitative as we could to make the ranking defensible. We’ve inspired some feedback already. The SEC does well of course but didn’t land the number one team — check it out if you get the chance!
Posted in College Sports, Financial Analysis, Football
Tagged American, College and University, college football, college football ranking, college football season, ESPN, ESPN college football rankings, ESPN The Magazine, ESPN ultimate standings, football, franchise, insider, Jeff Phillips, NCAA Division I-A, Sports, Tyler Williams
A few months ago, my buddy Jeff and I did some research for ESPN the Magazine on paying college athletes. We ignored all the institutional issues and got right to the accounting: considering costs and revenues, how much profit is each player worth to his team?
We focused on the University of Florida and found that top college football players are worth millions of dollars, while basketball players are worth a couple hundred thousand. Check out the details on the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference blog or in my previous post.
Posted in College Sports, Financial Analysis
Tagged American, blog, College and University, college football, ESPN, ESPN The Magazine, Fair market value college athletes, football, how much should college athletes be paid, should college athletes be paid, Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Sports, University of Florida