Yesterday, I posted a new idea for visualizing box scores: Game Stacks. While the first version did a good job of showing shooting percentages and turnover rates, it didn’t do a good job on rebounds. As my pops pointed out, Indiana had a big rebounding advantage over Michigan by the basic numbers (36-22), so it seemed wrong to rely only on the height of the stacks to determine who rebounded better. The reality: Michigan got more chances not because they rebounded better, but because they had more misses — and you have to miss to get a second chance. The height of the stacks just showed that Michigan got more offensive rebounds, even though their rebounding rate was terrible.
So, round two. Here’s the Michigan-Indiana Game Stack redesigned to capture rebounding:
Without play by play data, I had to keep the rebounding simple — I figured out the offensive rebound rate for each team:
Off reb rate = your off rebs/(their def rebs + your off rebs).
Then, I multiplied this rate by the relevant number of shots to generate the “Missed (O Reb)” category for each type of shot (the dashed regions). Each dashed/empty combo now visualizes the offensive rebound rate for the relevant team.
Now the picture is clearer:
Posted in Basketball, College Sports, Sports Stats
Tagged basketball, basketball graphic, Boston, Boston Celtics, box score, Celtics, Celtics offensive rebounding, Clippers, college hoops, defensive breakdowns, Dick Vitale, Free throw, Game Stack, game stacks, Golden State Warriors, graphical statistics, graphics sports, Hoosier, Houston Rockets, Indiana, Indiana basketball, indiana game, Lakers, lakers pistons, Los Angeles Lakers, Michigan, Michigan basketball, NBA, nba game, offensive rebound, Pistons, point attempts, Rebound (basketball), rebounding advantage, Rockets, Rockets 23 three pointers, Rockets three pointers, shooting percentages, shot attempts, Sports, sports statistics, Three-point field goal, turnover rates, visual shooting percentages, visual statistics, visualization, visualizing basketball games, Warriors, Wolverines
Earlier this spring, my coauthor Chris and I discovered that NBA teams tank a lot, especially teams in the first or second lottery position. This season, I’ve been tracking team performance before and after playoff-eliminated teams locked in to their lottery position. Once teams clinch their spot, there’s no incentive to tank anymore. We found that teams play much better after clinching. Here’s what things look like this year:
The Tank Watch
As I thought a couple weeks ago, the lockout bunched everyone up this year. There just weren’t enough games for teams to separate at the bottom. Only the Bobcats, Wizards, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, and Bucks clinched their spots before the season ended. This doesn’t mean that teams weren’t tanking (see my post on the Cavs yesterday), but I can’t really test for tanking in a foolproof way. And, comparing pre/post clinch winning percentage doesn’t identify all tankers, since some teams may make personnel decisions that are irreversible (Exhibit A: the Warriors) and others just get so used to losing or are so terrible that motivation fades (Exhibit B: the Bobcats).
The one team that looks like a tank show for sure is the Wizards, who essentially clinched the second lottery spot a week ago, and rattled off five wins to finish the season. While the Wiz were playing all their stars down the stretch (since they had no reason left to lose), their buddies at the bottom (Cavs, Timberwolves, Warriors) were sitting everyone down or trading them. The big outlier of course is the Hornets, who, due to their league ownership, kept Eric Gordon alive and played GREAT down the stretch. At least it only cost them one spot in the end (they finished tied for third), and Hornets fans can be optimistic about next year with Gordon.
Now that we’re done with all that tanking, let’s get on to the NBA’s second season, where all the best players get to play, all the stadiums are full, and all the teams are above average.
Posted in Basketball, Causal Analysis, Research Papers
Tagged basketball, Bobcats, Bobcats losing streak, causal analysis, Charlotte Bobcats, do teams tank NBA, draft position, eliminated from the playoffs, Eric Gordon, hornets, Hornets can't tank, Hornets league ownership, Hornets not tanking, Hornets owned by the NBA, Houston Rockets, how much tanking is there in the NBA, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, National Basketball Association, NBA, NBA 2011-2012, NBA 2012, NBA draft lottery, NBA draft lottery incentive to tank, nba teams, New Orleans Hornets, outlier, personnel decisions, playoff elimination, playoff elimination date, playoffs, Portland Trail Blazers, recent games, Sports, tank, tankers, tanking, team performance, trail blazers, Washington Wizards, when eliminated from the playoffs
There’s a lot to decide in the NBA draft lottery still, with six teams bunched between 21 and 23 wins. The most unfortunate of these teams is the Hornets, who have won 62% of their games since they were eliminated from the playoffs on March 31st. They’ve beaten such quality teams as the Nuggets, Rockets, Jazz, and Grizzlies in that stretch — pretty much unheard of for a team in their position — and risen from possibly 2nd in the lottery to a potential tie for 5th (meaning they get the average lottery odds between 5th and 6th places). I’m sure this is due to league ownership (which forced the Hornets to bring back Eric Gordon). It’s a great “natural experiment,” actually, that provides further evidence of tanking by all other (individually owned) teams.
A few teams have clinched their lottery spots already: the Bobcats, Wizards, Timberwolves, and Trail Blazers. My research with my buddy Chris shows that these teams should pick it up now that there’s no reason to tank. Stay tuned for the final Tank Watch in a couple days. There’s a good test match up tonight between the Wiz and the Cavaliers — I expect the Wizards to take it to them. We’ll see if the clinched teams outperform the other playoff eliminated teams over the next two days.
Posted in Basketball, Causal Analysis
Tagged basketball, Bobcats, Bobcats losing streak, causal analysis, Charlotte Bobcats, do teams tank NBA, draft position, eliminated from the playoffs, Eric Gordon, hornets, Hornets can't tank, Hornets league ownership, Hornets not tanking, Hornets owned by the NBA, Houston Rockets, how much tanking is there in the NBA, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, National Basketball Association, NBA, NBA 2011-2012, NBA 2012, NBA draft lottery, NBA draft lottery incentive to tank, nba teams, New Orleans Hornets, playoff elimination, playoff elimination date, playoffs, Portland Trail Blazers, recent games, Sports, tank, tankers, tanking, Washington Wizards, when eliminated from the playoffs
Last week, the tanking was going strong. Only the Hornets had played well among playoff eliminated teams. My guess is that league ownership made them bring back Eric Gordon, and it’s about to cost them a lottery position after they won again in the last few days. They helped boot the Rockets out of the playoffs and Gordon had another superb game.
A couple other teams played well since the last Tank Watch. The Wiz have now beaten the Bulls, Bucks, and Heat in succession, but their spot is basically clinched, so their incentive to tank is diminished. One more loss in their last three games or a win for the Hornets will lock them in. The Pistons also posted a couple of wins, though over Cleveland and Toronto. Here are the updated numbers:
The Tank Watch
Tonight, we get a treat! The Bobcats travel to play Washington. Below is an incredible craigslist post that my buddy Tony sent me about this game (click to enlarge). Apparently there were zero tickets listed on Stubhub around 4pm.
Posted in Basketball, Causal Analysis, Humor
Tagged basketball, Bobcats, Bobcats losing streak, causal analysis, Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, do teams tank NBA, draft position, eliminated from the playoffs, Eric Gordon, Golden State Warriors, hornets, Hornets can't tank, Hornets league ownership, Hornets not tanking, Hornets owned by the NBA, Houston Rockets, how much tanking is there in the NBA, Minnesota Timberwolves, National Basketball Association, NBA, NBA 2011-2012, NBA 2012, NBA draft lottery, NBA draft lottery incentive to tank, nba teams, New Jersey, New Jersey Nets, New Orleans Hornets, playoff elimination, playoff elimination date, playoffs, Portland Trail Blazers, recent games, Sacramento Kings, Sports, Stubhub, tank, tankers, tanking, Tony, Toronto, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, when eliminated from the playoffs
You all know by now — the New Orleans Mess tried to trade Chris Paul to the Lakers (involving the Rockets as well), but the other owners, who jointly own the Mess, stepped in and blocked the trade. The trade has quickly become an argument about the small market/big market dichotomy in the NBA. My brother Conor sent me a standard response from Matthew Yglesias at Slate. Yglesias argues that artificially preserving the talent on small market teams is misguided:
It’s not clear to me why they don’t just eliminate this New Orleans franchise. Everyone knows there are too many NBA teams. Nobody wants to own this team, nobody wants to play for it, and there’s no a priori reason to believe an NBA franchise in New Orleans could ever be financially viable.
Yglesias and many others feel that the Mess and maybe a few more teams should be “liquidated” and “replaced” in some way. Ideally, they could be moved to a big market, where the financial returns to winning seem higher. However, eliminating and moving teams is bad press. I also think that keeping teams Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Common Sense, Financial Analysis, Innovative Ideas, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged 30 for 30, baseball, basketball, big market teams, Chris Paul, Chris Paul trade, Daryl Morey, David Aresnault, Denver Nuggets, football, Grinnell College, Houston Rockets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kevin Grier, LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers, Loyola Marymount, Marginal Revolution, Matthew Yglesias, MLB, Moneyball, NBA, New Orleans Hornets, NFL, Paul Westhead, Seattle Scientists, Seattle SuperSonics, small market teams, Tyler Cowen