Thanks to Teamrankings for the data for this work. I hope that my models someday forecast as well as yours!
Yesterday, I tried some approaches to predict the NCAA tournament. My favorite of these is where I use team efficiency stats (shot selection, shooting percentage, turnovers per possession, and offensive rebounding percentage) to simulate whole games possession by possession. This approach predicts win-loss correctly in about 70% of tournament games over the past five years, so I decided to predict the whole tournament with this method for this year.
Below are the win probabilities that I generated for each region (the percentages on each line give the probability of winning the previous game).
Kentucky is the odds on favorite to win it all, and I predict that they will get out of their region. Their stiffest challenge could be Indiana, Continue reading