Yesterday, I posted a new idea for visualizing box scores: Game Stacks. While the first version did a good job of showing shooting percentages and turnover rates, it didn’t do a good job on rebounds. As my pops pointed out, Indiana had a big rebounding advantage over Michigan by the basic numbers (36-22), so it seemed wrong to rely only on the height of the stacks to determine who rebounded better. The reality: Michigan got more chances not because they rebounded better, but because they had more misses — and you have to miss to get a second chance. The height of the stacks just showed that Michigan got more offensive rebounds, even though their rebounding rate was terrible.
So, round two. Here’s the Michigan-Indiana Game Stack redesigned to capture rebounding:
Without play by play data, I had to keep the rebounding simple — I figured out the offensive rebound rate for each team:
Off reb rate = your off rebs/(their def rebs + your off rebs).
Then, I multiplied this rate by the relevant number of shots to generate the “Missed (O Reb)” category for each type of shot (the dashed regions). Each dashed/empty combo now visualizes the offensive rebound rate for the relevant team.
Now the picture is clearer:
Posted in Basketball, College Sports, Sports Stats
Tagged basketball, basketball graphic, Boston, Boston Celtics, box score, Celtics, Celtics offensive rebounding, Clippers, college hoops, defensive breakdowns, Dick Vitale, Free throw, Game Stack, game stacks, Golden State Warriors, graphical statistics, graphics sports, Hoosier, Houston Rockets, Indiana, Indiana basketball, indiana game, Lakers, lakers pistons, Los Angeles Lakers, Michigan, Michigan basketball, NBA, nba game, offensive rebound, Pistons, point attempts, Rebound (basketball), rebounding advantage, Rockets, Rockets 23 three pointers, Rockets three pointers, shooting percentages, shot attempts, Sports, sports statistics, Three-point field goal, turnover rates, visual shooting percentages, visual statistics, visualization, visualizing basketball games, Warriors, Wolverines
I promise I’ll give Kobe a break soon. After all, he took a break himself last night, in a game where Bynum played great (8-13 shooting, 15 boards), Kobe shot awful early and backed off from trying to score 40 (7-22, 14 points), but the Lakers won with their defense. Before I give it a rest, I wanted to link an interesting alternative approach to the numbers that I’ve been presenting.
Zach Lowe at SI breaks down Kobe’s decision making in a series of videos (granted, they are probably cherry picked). Lowe reminds us Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Common Sense
Tagged Andrew Bynum, Chris Paul, Dallas Mavericks, Deron Williams, Kobe Bryant holds the ball too much, Kobe Bryant selfish, Kobe shoots too much, Los Angeles Lakers, Rajon Rondo
Before the Mavs – Lakers game tonight, here’s Barkley:
“If Kobe scores 30 tonight the Lakers lose.”
“The Lakers need to pound the ball down low to Bynum and Gasol, with no Tyson Chandler.” (Chandler is out).
The Jet then interjected that it’s not whether Kobe shoots a lot, but the type of shots he takes. Ernie Johnson said something about Kobe having a chip on his shoulder, and Barkley:
“It’s not about a chip on your shoulder, it’s about strategy.”
Thank you, Barkley.
Posted in Basketball, Common Sense
Tagged Andrew Bynum, basketball, basketball on TNT, Charles Barkley doesn't like Kobe Bryant, Dallas Mavericks, Ernie Johnson, Kenny the Jet, Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers, NBA, Pau Gasol, Tyson Chandler
During Kobe’s “hot streak,” I’ve been writing that he’s actually inefficient compared to Andrau Gasnum, the Lakers’ superb tw0-man post presence. I’ve said that he should give up some shots until his efficiency equalizes with Gasnum’s. Adrian the Canadian was quick to send me a Sloan Sports Analytics Conference paper arguing that teams might equalize offensive efficiency too much already. The author (Brian Skinner) uses some network theory for unknown reasons (it’s not related to his point), but the paper boils down to Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Probability Analysis, Research Papers
Tagged Adrian the Canadian, Andrau Gasnum, Andrew Bynum efficient, basketball, Brian Skinner, equalizing offensive efficiency, Kobe Bryant, Kobe Bryant dumb, Kobe Bryant efficiency, Kobe Bryant macho, Los Angeles Lakers, marginal benefit, marginal cost, NBA, Paul Gasol efficient, Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
My apologies for missing the last couple days on the blog, but don’t worry, I was hard at work on two projects that I’ve just submitted with a couple other guys to the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. I’ll have more to say about them soon — one project looks at the effects of temperature, rest time, and turf type on MLS games, and the other examines the true value of winning the NBA draft lottery and measures how much tanking really goes on in the NBA.
In the meantime, Kobe Bryant is lighting up scoreboards and shot charts. He must be reading this blog, but I think all I did was make him angry. He’s taken 31 shots in each of the last three games and managed 40 points in all of them. Reading the ESPN write up from the last one, it looks like we have our new MVP.
However, over those games he’s made 47 shots for a Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Probability Analysis
Tagged Andrau Gasnum, Andrew Bynum, Andrew Bynum efficient, Cleveland Cavaliers, ESPN, great potential, Kobe Bryant, Kobe Bryant expected points, Kobe Bryant inefficient, Kobe Bryant shooting percentage, Kobe Bryant shoots too much, Kobe Bryant true shooting percentage, Kobe Bryant volume shooter, Los Angeles Lakers, Pau "the Gas Man" Gasol, Pau Gasol, Pau Gasol efficient, Phoenix Suns, Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, the Gas Man, two-headed beast Andrau Gasnum, Utah Jazz
Kobe Bryant is all fired up because people think he’s over the hill. I’m not sure he’s over the hill, but I do think that he excludes his teammates and plays macho, low percentage basketball. Looks like the Lakers can expect more of the same, especially with his 48 points last night. Even simple stats suggest that Kobe could play smarter. Despite shooting 46% from the field, he’s only shooting 18.8% from three point range this year on 4.4 three pointers per game (his career numbers, 33.7% and 3.8 attempts, are more reasonable but not great). He’s also averaging 3.9 turnovers per game this season.
Meanwhile, Kobe’s whipping boy Pau “the Gas Man” Gasol is shooting 57% from the field this year and Andrew “Huge Potential” Bynum is at 53%. It’s basic game theory. Kobe should stop taking threes and feed the big men (generating higher percentage shots) until the defense reacts by doubling more. Kobe’s shooting percentage should go up (he’ll be open more), meaning that the shooting percentages will even out at a higher average for the team as a whole. Based on his post game comments, though, I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for this to happen.
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Probability Analysis
Tagged Andrew Bynum great potential, basketball, Kobe 48 points, Kobe Bryant, Kobe Bryant offensive efficiency, Kobe Bryant shooting percentages, Kobe overconfident, Kobe selfish, Kobe shoots too much, Los Angeles Lakers, NBA, Pau Gasol, the Gas Man, three point shooting percentage, too many threes, turnovers
On Sunday night, the Lakers traveled to Denver for the second half of a home and away back to back. The Lakers took game 1, but home court and youth were on the Nuggets side for game 2. The Lakers got great games from Pau “the Gas Man” Gasol and Andrew “Great Potential” Bynum, keeping the game close. Then, Kobe “took over” and blew the game for them. His bricklayer performance (6-28, 16 points, 2 boards) was the old man version of his 2009 finals game 7 ugly (6-24, 23 points, 15 boards) — fewer trips to the line and no rebounding. Bad sign for the Lakers.
The Nuggets took full advantage of old man Kobe, letting him take tough jump shots and then leaking a player as soon as the shot went up. On one Kobe brick, Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Common Sense, Innovative Ideas
Tagged Andrew Bynum, basketball, Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Kobe Bryant, Kobe Bryant game 7 2009 NBA finals, Kobe Bryant NBA finals MVP 2009, Kobe Bryant poor shooting, Los Angeles Lakers, NBA, NBA playoffs, Pau Gasol, Seattle Scientists, the Gas Man