Tag Archives: NBA first overall picks

Who tanks in the NBA?

Tanking: intentionally losing in order to improve draft position.

After my PhD buddy Chris and I circulated our findings that NBA teams tank a lot, we’ve been asked a few times, “Which teams are tanking?” Today I offer a quick look at teams that have likely tanked.

First, a refresher: we measure tanking by comparing performance before and after playoff-eliminated teams “clinch” their lottery spot. In the last couple games of the season, many teams lock in their spot, so they no longer have an incentive to lose. Those games act as our control. The problem with doing it this way is that some tankers may keep trying to lose even after they clinch their spot. This could happen because teams shut down star players because of “injury” or just because teams develop a habit of losing.

So, the big caveat with the results below (and the results in our paper) is that we are almost certainly missing some tankers. Some teams Continue reading

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To tank or not to tank

Last week, I mentioned that my paper with my PhD cohort Chris was accepted for the poster session at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. I’ll give the summary and some pictures today (you can find the full paper on my academic website). The project looks at the age old subject of tanking for position in the NBA draft lottery. We answer two questions:

  1. Should teams tank for a better draft position?
  2. How much do teams actually tank?

For the first question, we head right to the lottery. We are interested in the causal effect of obtaining the top pick in the draft. If the first pick is truly valuable, then teams should be willing to lose intentionally to get it. LeBron James, Tim Duncan, and Shaquille O’Neal were all first picks, but so were Greg Oden and Michael Olowokandi. We want the average value of all the first picks since the draft lottery took its current form in 1990.

Since there is some randomness in who wins the lottery, Continue reading