Tag Archives: Norfolk State University

The final tally

The tournament is over, and Kentucky are the champs. Who predicted that? Well, lots of people. Among the rankings I tracked, however (including my game simulations), only the tournament committee got it right by making them the overall number one seed. Here’s how the initial brackets fared for each ranking:

My simulations (final row) got off to a strong start through the first four rounds, as did the other quantitative approaches (Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings). However, seeding finished strong. By percent correct, the quant methods were slightly better (65 to 66% correct), but choosing based on seeding would have attained Continue reading


NCAAs round 1 results

For the NCAA tournament this year, I simulated each game based on my predicted efficiency stats for each team (shooting percentage, shot selection, turnover rate, and offensive rebound rate). I submitted my work for Teamrankings.com’s college basketball blogging competition and I’m thrilled to announce that I moved on to the next round! I’m pretty excited for round 2 (deadline Tuesday at midnight). If you have a topic suggestion, let me know — bonus points for something semi-related to the game simulations I’ve been running.

Now how about those simulations? Here’s a performance overview against a few other rankings (seeding, RPI,¬†Ken Pomeroy, and Jeff Sagarin):

Simply choosing the higher seed got 22 games right. RPI did slightly worse at 21, and I matched Sagarin at the top with 23 correct (71.9%). The problem? As evidenced by the potential wins columns, I lost my champion. Missouri battled Norfolk State the whole game and came out behind. Every method lost Missouri, Duke, and Michigan as round 2 predicted winners, and Missouri, Duke, or both as round 3 winners. I’ll need some help to catch up at the end, though. No other system had Missouri or Duke advance to the Final Four.

Specifically, where did I go right? Of my “upset locks” (over 60% probability), VCU and NC State came through, and Alabama nearly beat Creighton. It’s worth reminding at this point¬† Continue reading