I skimmed through Aaron Schatz’s Football Outsiders preview of the Ravens – Patriots game today. As usual, he gives a lot of interesting numbers. Football Outsiders has better data than anyone else. Just like everyone in the world, Schatz picks the Patriots as the clear favorites in the end; I agree, though I think the Patriots’ edge is subtle. The Patriots have home field and finished second to the Packers in True Wins with 12, but the Ravens played a harder schedule (7.8 average True Wins for Ravens opponents versus 7.3 for the Patriots, including a game against the Vick-less Eagles).
I often find that stats-based previews list a lot of numbers that don’t mean much. Here’s an example from Schatz’s piece: Continue reading