My buddy Tony and I have been trying to figure out how to quantify Jeremy Lin’s recent five games. He suggested I figure out the likelihood of his start, assuming that Lin is “just” an above average point guard. So, I identified all the point guards who averaged between 16 and 18 points per game in the 2009-10 or 2010-11 season. In 2009-10, that included Devin Harris, Rodney Stuckey, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Steve Nash, and Tony Parker. In 10-11, the list is Brandon Jennings, Chauncey Billups, Gilbert Arenas (before the suspension), John Wall, Raymond Felton (while with the Knicks), and Tony Parker again.
I collected the game logs for all these guys for the relevant year(s); here’s the histogram of points scored in each game (including playoffs to bump the sample up):
In a total of 832 games, these players scored 30 or more points on 38 separate occasions (this is the total of the last three bars on the right). Likewise, they scored fewer than 5 points in 32 different games. These two tails each capture about 4-5% of the total distribution.
Using this distribution, Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Prediction, Probability Analysis
Tagged Brandon Jennings, Chauncey Billups, Devin Harris, exact sequence, five games, game logs, game point, Gilbert Arenas, Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lin analysis, Jeremy Lin assessment, Jeremy Lin hype, Jeremy Lin overhyped, Jeremy Lin overrated, Jeremy Lin point guard, Jeremy Lin points, Jeremy Lin prediction, Jeremy Lin statistics, John Wall, Knick, Lin, New York Knicks, Point guard, Raymond Felton, Rodney Stuckey, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Steve Nash, three bars, Tony Parker
As I predicted, Jeremy Lin came back to earth against the Timberwolves last night (8-24 shooting, 8 assists, 6 turnovers, three more bricks from three point range). I found the whole thing quite revealing, since the Wolves have their own marketable point guard (Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio), but he gets much less attention in a small market.
This is not to diminish Lin’s achievement. He has made the Knicks winners without their two best players. However, there are plenty of reasons to temper the enthusiasm. During his five game launch to stardom, Lin has three games with 8 assists or fewer and 6 turnovers or more. He’s shooting 3-17 from three point range. Let’s see if he can get those numbers in line before we get too excited.
Posted in Basketball, Commentary
Tagged basketball, Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lin bad three point shooter, Jeremy Lin hype, Jeremy Lin lucky, Jeremy Lin overhyped, Jeremy Lin overrated, Jeremy Lin Ricky Rubio, Jeremy Lin shooting percentage, Jeremy Lin too much hype, Jeremy Lin turnovers, Knicks, Lin, Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA, New York Knicks, Point guard, Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves