Tag Archives: Pythagorean exponent

Pythagorean Part 2 — True Wins Rises

Last week, I wrote about the use of the Pythagorean expectation for measuring NFL team quality. I didn’t have much nice to say. I think that the Pythagorean has a catchy name, but it’s more complicated than it needs to be. The Pythagorean uses points for and against to capture the intuition that close games are decided by luck, not skill. I proposed True Wins as a way to frame this more transparently:

True Wins =  Blowout wins + Close wins/2 + Close losses/2 + Ties/2

True Wins gives half credit for all close games, whether won or lost, since teams should win half their close games in the long run if they are truly decided by luck. For this post, Continue reading