Tag Archives: Pythagorean

Just a little bit of luck

A couple days ago, I showed that True Wins is an able replacement for Pythagorean wins as a simple, “luck-free” measure of team quality in the NFL. True Wins gives full credit for blowout wins and half credit for close wins and losses (defining close games as games within 7 points). Heading into week 15 tonight, I thought it would be fun to see how teams stack up this season. First, let’s look at teams almost certain to make the playoffs (4 of the 7 have already clinched):

True Wins agrees that the Packers are the clear best team, and there’s not much difference among the six teams at 10-3. All these teams have gotten a little lucky in close games (i.e., their wins are higher than their True Wins), but only the Packers and Saints True Win differences are especially high. These teams are all legitimate playoff contenders.

Next, consider teams still in the hunt (I’ll be generous and include 6-7 teams plus the Eagles): Continue reading

Pythagorean Part 2 — True Wins Rises

Last week, I wrote about the use of the Pythagorean expectation for measuring NFL team quality. I didn’t have much nice to say. I think that the Pythagorean has a catchy name, but it’s more complicated than it needs to be. The Pythagorean uses points for and against to capture the intuition that close games are decided by luck, not skill. I proposed True Wins as a way to frame this more transparently:

True Wins =  Blowout wins + Close wins/2 + Close losses/2 + Ties/2

True Wins gives half credit for all close games, whether won or lost, since teams should win half their close games in the long run if they are truly decided by luck. For this post, Continue reading