My buddy Tony and I have been trying to figure out how to quantify Jeremy Lin’s recent five games. He suggested I figure out the likelihood of his start, assuming that Lin is “just” an above average point guard. So, I identified all the point guards who averaged between 16 and 18 points per game in the 2009-10 or 2010-11 season. In 2009-10, that included Devin Harris, Rodney Stuckey, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Steve Nash, and Tony Parker. In 10-11, the list is Brandon Jennings, Chauncey Billups, Gilbert Arenas (before the suspension), John Wall, Raymond Felton (while with the Knicks), and Tony Parker again.
I collected the game logs for all these guys for the relevant year(s); here’s the histogram of points scored in each game (including playoffs to bump the sample up):
In a total of 832 games, these players scored 30 or more points on 38 separate occasions (this is the total of the last three bars on the right). Likewise, they scored fewer than 5 points in 32 different games. These two tails each capture about 4-5% of the total distribution.
Using this distribution, Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Prediction, Probability Analysis
Tagged Brandon Jennings, Chauncey Billups, Devin Harris, exact sequence, five games, game logs, game point, Gilbert Arenas, Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lin analysis, Jeremy Lin assessment, Jeremy Lin hype, Jeremy Lin overhyped, Jeremy Lin overrated, Jeremy Lin point guard, Jeremy Lin points, Jeremy Lin prediction, Jeremy Lin statistics, John Wall, Knick, Lin, New York Knicks, Point guard, Raymond Felton, Rodney Stuckey, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Steve Nash, three bars, Tony Parker
Another story today about Danny Ainge shopping Rajan Rondo like the Greeks shop bonds. His main target has been Chris Paul, but Ainge went after Russell Westbrook over the summer as well.
The Celtics can barely field a team right now. They have three aging stars (Pierce, Allen, Garnett). I can see why Ainge wants to make a trade, and I agree that Paul would be an upgrade. But why would New Orleans make this deal? Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Common Sense, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged Boston Celtics, Celtics big three, Chris Paul, Danny Ainge, Eastern Conference playoffs, Golden State Warriors, Kendrick Perkins, Kevin Garnett, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, NBA, New Orleans Hornets, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Paul Pierce, Rajan Rondo, Ray Allen, Russell Westbrook, trade rumors