There’s a new paper out this month by Casey Ichniowski and Anne Preston concerning the NCAA tournament and the NBA draft (thanks to my PhD buddies Chris and Felipe for passing it along). Their argument is that unexpectedly strong tournament performance (especially team performance) causes players to be selected earlier in the NBA draft. This isn’t a bad thing though — in fact, they suggest that these strong tournament players tend to outperform their draft position in the NBA.
I believe their results saying that tournament performance affects draft position (this has also been shown by Chaz Thomas in an undergraduate thesis, and by David Berri, Stacey Brook, and Aju Fenn), and I mostly believe their results that strong tourney performers should be drafted even earlier, though their set up is a little odd for this second issue.
The clearest way to show that teams make mistakes in the draft Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, College Sports, Prediction, Research Papers
Tagged Anne E. Preston, Casey Ichniowski, Chaz Thomas NBA draft NCAA tournament March Madness, Columbia Ichniowski, David Berri, does March Madness matter for the NBA draft, Ichniowski March Madness, Ichniowski NBA draft, Ichniowski NCAA tournament, National Basketball Association, National Basketball Association Draft, NBA, NCAA, NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Championship, NCAA tournament NBA draft, Perry Jones, predicting NBA performance, statistics
The last five years for the Patriots would make many people believe in karma. Since Tom Brady left his baby mama Bridget Moynahan for Gisele and Bill Belichick got caught videotaping other teams’ run throughs, here are the Patriots season results:
- 2007: Crazy late game Super Bowl loss to the underdog Giants
- 2008: Brady tore his ACL early in the season and they missed the playoffs despite going 11-5
- 2009: Brady had a stinker in a first round loss to the Ravens
- 2010: Finished 14-2, but Brady had another stinker in a second round loss to the rival Jets
- 2011: Brady nearly blew it against the Ravens again in the AFC championship game and they sneaked into the Super Bowl, only to suffer another late game loss to the underdog Giants
Gisele continued her negative influence by blaming the loss on drops by the Patriots receivers (only Aaron Hernandez had a truly bad drop, and it was probably too late to matter). The Patriots have 60 wins over the last five years (12 per year), but no rings. If the Patriots go 15-1 next year and get a rematch with a 9-7 Giants team, the Giants will probably be favored. They can’t get past those guys.
Close games are generally decided by luck — Bill Barnwell gets into this at Grantland, but finds himself backtracking almost immediately to avoid angering Giants fans (“The Giants were not lucky to win Super Bowl XLVI because they fumbled twice and fell on both of them.”). There will be no backtracking from me! The Giants were lucky to win (as the Patriots would have been if they had won). Here’s the way the ball bounced Continue reading
Posted in Commentary, Common Sense, Football, Pop Culture, Probability Analysis, Rules Analysis
Tagged 12 men on the field, 2007 New England Patriots season, Aaron Hernandez drop, Aaron Hernandez lost the Super Bowl for the Patriots, AFC championship game, Ahmad Bradshaw, Baltimore Ravens, Barnwell wrong, BenJarvus Green-Ellis never fumbles, Bill Barnwell, Billy Cundiff shank, Bradshaw, Bradshaw declared himself down, Bradshaw should have gone down, Brady, Brandon Jacobs, Bridget Moynahan, Buddy Ryan Polish defense, Buddy Ryan too many men on the field, Danny Woodhead, David Beckham Super Bowl commercial, did the Giants get lucky, Eli Manning, Giants 12 men on purpose, Giants defensive line, Giants fumbles, Giants should have kicked a field goal, Giants strategy Super Bowl, Giants win the Super Bowl, Gisele Bundchen, Gisele criticizes receivers, Grantland, Gronkowksi ankle, Gronkowksi injured, Hakeem Nicks, Justin Tuck, Lawrence Tynes, Madonna old, Madonna stiff, Manning told Bradshaw to go down, Mark Sanchez, New York Giants, New York Jets, Patriot, Patriots bad karma, Patriots have no deep threat, Patriots let the Giants score, Patriots strategy Super Bowl, Patriots unlucky, Randy Moss, Sean Weatherford MVP, should Patriots have let Giants score, statistics, Super Bowl, Super Bowl 46, Super Bowl XLVI, Tom Brady, Tom Brady bad decision interception, Tom Brady safety, Tom Coughlin, Victor Cruz, Victor Cruz fumble, Vince Wilfork, Wes Welker, Wes Welker drops, Wes Welker lost the Super Bowl for the Patriots, win probability Giants