My post for round 2 of TeamRankings blogging competition is up on their blog. I give a full explanation of my NCAA basketball simulation method and flesh out my predictions for tonight’s games.
Edit: The complete post can now be found below. I moved it here in case TeamRankings changes their links at a future date.
Breaking Down Match Ups: Sweet Sixteen Game Simulations
In round 1 of the Stat Geek Idol competition, I described a procedure to simulate NCAA basketball games based on the few team statistics that really matter: shooting percentages, shot selection, turnovers per play, and offensive rebound percentage. These are basically Dean Oliver’s four factors, though I go a little more in depth. For this round, I’ll break down the simulation procedure and apply it to the Sweet Sixteen match ups. But first, how have my simulations performed so far? For comparison, I list the number of teams correctly predicted to reach the second and third rounds by a few different methods (I give a full summary on my blog):
- Take the higher seed: 22/32, 11/16
- Take the higher RPI: 21/32, 9/16
- Take the higher Pomeroy ranking: 22/32, 10/16
- Take the higher Sagarin ranking: 23/32, 10/16
- Take the team that wins majority of my simulations: 23/32, 9/16
If I forgive first round mistakes and recalculate second round match ups Continue reading