Despite True Wins historical success, neither True Wins nor actual wins had a great weekend predicting playoff games. In the one game where the two measures gave a different prediction, the 11 True Win 49ers toppled the 11.5 True Win Saints, giving actual wins a half game lead (half credit given since actual wins were tied at 13 for each team). Both predictors got the Ravens and Patriots games right, and both Continue reading
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Rematch!
There were no True Wins handed out yesterday. The Ravens, Patriots, Giants, and 49ers treated us to two extremely close football games. Close games generally come down to luck to determine the winner; indeed, I thought both games would be close but was fortunate to pick both winners last week. Regular season True Wins and actual wins both predicted the Patriots victory but failed on the Giants, who are underrated by wins measures due to their ridiculous strength of schedule. For the first time since 2007 (and only the fourth time since 2002), actual wins is going to beat out True Wins in predicting playoff games. Both measures suggest the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, since they have far more wins and True Wins than the Giants, and actual wins are a half game up going into the final (5.5 games correct to 5 games correct):
The two championship games had some common themes, actually. The “offensive” teams (Patriots, Giants), playing against good defenses, did not have their usual panache. However, they both stacked the box Continue reading →
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