Last week, the tanking was going strong. Only the Hornets had played well among playoff eliminated teams. My guess is that league ownership made them bring back Eric Gordon, and it’s about to cost them a lottery position after they won again in the last few days. They helped boot the Rockets out of the playoffs and Gordon had another superb game.
A couple other teams played well since the last Tank Watch. The Wiz have now beaten the Bulls, Bucks, and Heat in succession, but their spot is basically clinched, so their incentive to tank is diminished. One more loss in their last three games or a win for the Hornets will lock them in. The Pistons also posted a couple of wins, though over Cleveland and Toronto. Here are the updated numbers:
The Tank Watch
Tonight, we get a treat! The Bobcats travel to play Washington. Below is an incredible craigslist post that my buddy Tony sent me about this game (click to enlarge). Apparently there were zero tickets listed on Stubhub around 4pm.
Posted in Basketball, Causal Analysis, Humor
Tagged basketball, Bobcats, Bobcats losing streak, causal analysis, Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, do teams tank NBA, draft position, eliminated from the playoffs, Eric Gordon, Golden State Warriors, hornets, Hornets can't tank, Hornets league ownership, Hornets not tanking, Hornets owned by the NBA, Houston Rockets, how much tanking is there in the NBA, Minnesota Timberwolves, National Basketball Association, NBA, NBA 2011-2012, NBA 2012, NBA draft lottery, NBA draft lottery incentive to tank, nba teams, New Jersey, New Jersey Nets, New Orleans Hornets, playoff elimination, playoff elimination date, playoffs, Portland Trail Blazers, recent games, Sacramento Kings, Sports, Stubhub, tank, tankers, tanking, Tony, Toronto, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, when eliminated from the playoffs
‘Tis the season for tanking! Last week, there were six teams eliminated from the playoffs. The Bobcats and Wizards had lost quite a lot already since then, though the Hornets looked surprisingly good. The Hornets continue to look good, but everyone else is bad bad bad, and the ranks of the eliminated have grown. The Bobcats locked in the worst record last night, but it’s hard to imagine them winning any games the rest of the way, so I’m not sure they can be accused of tanking. They are just a terrible team.
The Tank Watch
The Hornets 6-3 record since playoff elimination is largely due to the return of Eric Gordon (they are 4-1 in recent games when he has played). However, would any team other than the LEAGUE OWNED Hornets bring back Eric Gordon Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Causal Analysis, Commentary, Common Sense, Research Papers
Tagged basketball, Bobcats, Bobcats losing streak, caspian, causal analysis, Charlotte Bobcats, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, do teams tank NBA, draft position, eliminated from the playoffs, Eric Gordon, Golden State Warriors, Grantland, hornets, Hornets can't tank, Hornets league ownership, Hornets not tanking, Hornets owned by the NBA, how much tanking is there in the NBA, Jay Caspian Kang, Jay Caspian Kang tanking, Kang tanking, Minnesota Timberwolves, National Basketball Association, NBA, NBA 2011-2012, NBA 2012, NBA draft lottery, NBA draft lottery incentive to tank, nba teams, New Jersey, New Jersey Nets, New Orleans Hornets, playoff elimination, playoff elimination date, playoffs, Portland Trail Blazers, recent games, research findings, Sacramento Kings, Sports, tank, tankers, tanking, Tony, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, when eliminated from the playoffs
Following up on my post yesterday tracking tankers the past few years, here’s the tank watch for the 2011-2012 season. Six teams have been eliminated from the playoffs so far, but no one has locked in their spot yet. We’ll see if the Bobcats stop their losing ways (13 in a row!) once they clinch the worst record and the tanking incentive is gone:
The Tank Watch
Posted in Basketball, Causal Analysis
Tagged basketball, Bobcats, Bobcats have lost 13 in a row, Bobcats lose 13 in a row, causal analysis, Charlotte Bobcats, do teams tank NBA, draft position, eliminated from the playoffs, how much tanking is there in the NBA, National Basketball Association, NBA, NBA 2011-2012, NBA 2012, NBA draft lottery, NBA draft lottery incentive to tank, nba teams, New Jersey Nets, New Orleans Hornets, playoff elimination, playoff elimination date, playoffs, Sacramento Kings, Sports, tank, tankers, tanking, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, when eliminated from the playoffs
Not only has Ricky Rubio made the Timberwolves a potential playoff team, but he might also be a genius. The Timberwolves led by three with 10 seconds left last night, and the Nets had the ball with a chance to tie. Deron Williams quickly dribbled up court, did a nice crossover to beat his man, and drew the big man in the lane. He had Anthony Morrow wide open in the corner for a three (he had 42 points and was 8 of 11 from three for the game) but botched the pass. Rubio ended up with the ball. Rather than get fouled, he chucked the ball high and far down the court; the clock ran out as the ball bounced harmless under the other hoop. The Wolves would have almost surely won if Rubio held the ball, but he removed any doubt. Nice work, Rubio.
For a related situation, check out my football riddle from a couple weeks ago.
Posted in Basketball, Common Sense
Tagged Anthony Morrow, basketball, Deron Williams, Kris Humphries, Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA, Nets, New Jersey Nets, Ricky Rubio, Rubio, Timberwolves
At halftime of the Lakers and Bulls Christmas day game, the commentators speculated on whether the Lakers can compete as they are or whether they should keep pushing to trade for Dwight Howard. Magic Johnson said unequivocally that the Lakers cannot win a championship with their current team and should continue working on a trade offer with Andrew Bynum as the centerpiece. Chris Broussard went even further, arguing that the Lakers should trade Bynum and Pau Gasol, which seems to be what the Magic want.
This was music to my ears. The Lakers have some interesting new role players this year (good rebounders Troy Murphy and Josh McRoberts, sharpshooting rookie Andrew Goudelock). Even if they have to trade one or two of these guys and a stocking full of draft picks, it’s a great time to follow my South Beach Talents model by pairing top 15 superstars. I no longer put Gasol in the top 15, at least not with the specter of Kobe staring down ready to criticize every mistake.
With Brook Lopez out, the Nets missed their shot. The Lakers should do EVERYTHING POSSIBLE to get Dwight Howard. If they do, they will immediately become strong contenders for at least one more NBA championship. What more could they want under their Christmas tree?
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Innovative Ideas, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged Andrew Goudelock, Brook Lopez injury, Josh McRoberts, Kobe Bryant, Lakers NBA championship contenders, Los Angeles Lakers Dwight Howard, NBA, New Jersey Nets, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum trade, South Beach Talents, Troy Murphy
It has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? They could have been the Brooklyn Talents, on their way to the playoffs. Instead, the Nets will be lucky to win 30 games without Brook Lopez. They should have given the Magic whatever they wanted in exchange for Dwight Howard. Who cares about a few more draft picks or a role player? Too late now.
The transactions keep flowing in the NBA. Nene signed a big contract with the Nuggets (more than $67 million, 5 years) that only looks small because many thought he might receive a $100 million offer. However, this still reminds me of the contracts that brought us NBA Lockout 2011 (which is also the name of a really boring video game about collective bargaining and corporate finance). We’re talking about a big man with past knee problems and a rebound rate around 15 over the last four years. Guys like Dwight Howard and Kevin Love are in the 20s.
I think Nene is a decent defender as well, but this contract is most likely a questionable decision in response to a bad situation. Continue reading
Posted in Basketball, Commentary, Financial Analysis, Hockey, Probability Analysis, Trades/Free Agency
Tagged Aaron Afflalo, basketball in China, cap room, Chris Paul, Corey Brewer, Dallas Mavericks, DeAndre Jordan, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Red Wings, Dwight Howard, eight seed wins series, Evgeni Malkin, J.R. Smith, John Hollinger, Kenyon Martin, Kevin Love, Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, max contracts, midlevel contracts, NBA, NBA lockout, NBA playoffs, Nene, New Jersey Nets, NHL, NHL playoffs, PER, Pittsburgh Penguins, rebound rate, Rudy Fernandez, salary cap, Sidney Crosby concussion, Tyson Chandler, Wilson Chandler