We might be halfway through the first quarter of the first NFL playoff game of 2013, but I’m still finishing up with baseball and just getting warmed up on football. Football month on the blog officially kicks off today — there’s lots of interest stuff to come, from innovative rule ideas and play calling to new prediction methods and game analysis. Today, I’m trying an addition to the measure of NFL team quality that I debuted last year: True Wins. True Wins are calculated as follows:
True Win = Blowout Wins + Close Wins/2 + Close Losses/2 + Ties/2
You may recognize the intuition from pythagorean expectations — you get full credit for blowout wins (I define this as more than 7 points), but no extra credit for winning by huge margins, and you get half credit for all close games, since those probably come down to luck more than skill. Last year, I showed that True Wins predicts a little better than pythagoreans, and it’s a whole lot more direct. Both measures are much better than using wins alone, which unfairly penalize (reward) teams that lose (win) a lot of close games.
What Else is Luck-Driven? Fumble Recoveries?
With the playoffs coming right up, I decided to try an improvement that adjusts for possible luck in fumble recoveries as well. Here’s the logic (from Football Outsiders):
Stripping the ball is a skill. Holding onto the ball is a skill. Pouncing on the ball as it is bouncing all over the place is not a skill. There is no correlation whatsoever between the percentage of fumbles recovered by a team in one year and the percentage they recover in the next year. The odds of recovery are based solely on the type of play involved, not the teams or any of their players . . . Fumble recovery is a major reason why the general public overestimates or underestimates certain teams. Fumbles are huge, turning-point plays that dramatically impact wins and losses in the past, while fumble recovery percentage says absolutely nothing about a team’s chances of winning games in the future. With this in mind, Football Outsiders stats treat all fumbles as equal, penalizing them based on the likelihood of each type of fumble (run, pass, sack, etc.) being recovered by the defense.
The keys are:
- Fumbles are huge turning points in games
- Teams don’t maintain high or low recovery rates over time
To quantify #1, I determined the point value of a recovery. A simple regression of point differential in each game on total fumbles and fumbles Continue reading
As the dust settles: week 17 recap and playoff preview
The playoffs are set! I’ll give my thoughts on each match up in a moment, but let’s look at what happened in week 17 first. Seven teams were fighting for their playoff lives, and 7 out of 9 that had clinched were still playing for a higher seed. Like last week, let’s start with the teams that have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl (at least 10 True Wins and a stable quarterback situation; if you haven’t read about True Wins yet, what are you waiting for?):
All these teams got the job done in week 17. I was confident that the Steelers would win a defensive struggle against the Browns Continue reading →
3 Comments
Posted in Commentary, Football, Sports Stats
Tagged Adrian Peterson ACL, AFC, Andrew Luck, Andy Reid, ankle injury, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger, Ben Roethlisberger ankle, Blaine Gabbert, Buffalo Bills, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Christian Ponder, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Colt McCoy, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, division, East, fired, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, injury, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jake Delhomme, Jay Cutler, Jeff Fisher Dolphins, Jeff Garcia, Jerry Angelo, Joe Webb, John Skelton, Jon Kitna, Kansas City Chiefs, Kevin Kolb, Lance Briggs, Manning Jets, Matt Flynn, Matt Forte, Matt Moore, Matt Schaub, Maurice Jones-Drew, Miami Dolphins, Michael Vick, Mike Martz, Mike Shanahan, Minnesota Vikings, neck injury, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFC, NFL, NFL playoff scenarios, North, Norv Turner, Oakland Raiders, Peyton Manning, Philadelphia Eagles, Phillip Rivers, Pittsburgh Steelers, playoffs, Rex Grossman, Rex Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Bradford, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, South, St. Louis Rams, strength of schedule, Super Bowl, Super Bowl line, T.J. Yates, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tarvaris Jackson, Tennessee Titans, Tony, Tony Romo, True Wins, Washington Redskins, week 17, West